491 Visa Trend in 2026: Fewer Places, Stronger State Targeting, and What Else to Expect

Regional migration in 2026 is not slowing down because demand has dropped. Demand remains high. What has changed is supply, and how tightly that supply is controlled.

The Skilled Work Regional (Provisional) visa (subclass 491) continues to be one of Australia’s most important pathways for skilled migrants willing to live and work outside major metropolitan areas. However, in 2026, the 491 visa operates in a more constrained, targeted, and competitive environment than in previous years.

For the 2025–26 program year, the Department of Home Affairs reduced overall state nomination allocations, including a notable reduction in 491 places. As a result, states and territories are selecting more selectively, prioritising specific occupations, stronger evidence, and applicants who clearly fit their regional workforce needs.

This makes the 491 visa highly relevant in 2026, but only for applicants with the right strategy.

The Core Reality of 491 in 2026: High Demand, Lower Supply

The most important shift for 2026 is not policy wording, it is allocation size.

National 491 Allocation Comparison

• 2024–25: 9,760 nomination places
• 2025–26: 7,500 nomination places

At the same time, total state nominations (190 + 491) were also reduced:

• 2024–25: 26,260 places
• 2025–26: 20,350 places

The competition has intensified not because applicants are weaker, but because there are fewer invitations to issue.

Where the 491 Places Actually Are in 2025–26

Regional migration is not a single system. It is eight separate state and territory nomination programs, each with its own priorities.

491 Nomination Allocations by State / Territory (2025–26)

• Western Australia: 2,200
• New South Wales: 1,200
• South Australia: 800
• Northern Territory: 800
• Victoria: 700
• Queensland: 600
• Tasmania: 600
• Australian Capital Territory: 600

This distribution matters because a strong profile in one state may be uncompetitive in another.

Why State Targeting Is Stronger in 2026

Even when Australia’s overall Migration Program planning level appears stable, state nomination can become significantly more competitive.

In 2026, state selection behaviour is being shaped by:

• Reduced nomination allocations
• Priority occupation clustering (health, care, education, trades, infrastructure, selected ICT and engineering)
• Stronger preference for applicants with genuine regional labour market contribution
• Faster pathway closures once allocations are filled

A clear example is NSW, which has publicly announced closures of certain 491 pathways for the program year ending 30 June 2026 after reaching allocation limits.

This is not an exception, it is a preview of how 2026 is unfolding.

What “Stronger State Targeting” Looks Like in Practice

1. Invitations Are Issued in Patterns, Not Evenly

States often invite in occupation clusters aligned with immediate workforce needs. Even a high-points applicant may miss out if their occupation is not in the current target mix.

2. Regional Employment Is a Major Differentiator

Many state programs heavily value:

• Living in the region
• Working in the region
• Demonstrated intent to remain

For example, NSW describes the 491 visa as allowing skilled migrants to live, work and study in designated regional areas for up to five years, with different pathways depending on employment, invitation, or regional graduation.

3. Pathways Can Close Mid-Year

In 2026, pathways are closing before 30 June, not at year-end. Applicants must be ready to pivot quickly.

4. Evidence Quality Matters as Much as Points

States are looking for consistency, not just claims:

• ANZSCO alignment
• Duties matching skills assessments
• Clean EOIs
• Current English, experience, and partner evidence

5. Offshore Is Possible – but Requires Sharper Targeting

Offshore applicants remain eligible, but onshore signals (regional work, study, ties) can be stronger in many streams. Offshore strategies must be highly targeted.

6. Frequent Rounds Do Not Mean Easy Rounds

Some states, such as South Australia, publish monthly invitation outcomes and indicate continued rounds. Regularity does not reduce selectivity.

How Many Points Do You Really Need for 491 in 2026?

The points test pass mark is only the starting point.

Real competitiveness depends on:

• Occupation demand in that specific state
• How your EOI ranks against others in the same unit group
• Onshore profile strength
• Evidence quality

State nomination adds:

• +15 points for subclass 491
• +5 points for subclass 190

A practical 2026 mindset is:

• Build strong base points first
• Treat nomination points as a boost, not the plan itself
• Avoid relying on a single state or stream if your occupation is not consistently prioritised

491 vs 190 vs Regional Employer Pathways in 2026

491 to PR: The Subclass 191 Pathway Is Clearer Now

For many applicants, the long-term goal of 491 is permanent residency via subclass 191.

A critical clarification from Home Affairs:

• There is no minimum income requirement specified by legislative instrument for subclass 191
• Applicants must provide ATO Notices of Assessment for three income years within the eligible visa period

PR eligibility is therefore based on:

• Genuine regional compliance
• Real taxable income history
• Meeting visa conditions over time

It is not about hitting a fixed salary number.

Timing Matters: How 2026 Invitation Rounds Are Playing Out

State nomination is a program-year race, not a single event.

In 2026, applicants should monitor:

• Pathway closures once allocations fill
• Monthly or periodic invitation reporting
• Occupation priority shifts
• Short response windows after invitation

Final Word: Regional Migration in 2026 Is Targeted, Not Easy

The 491 visa in 2026 is best described as high demand, fewer places, and sharper selection.

It remains a powerful pathway – but only when your strategy aligns with what states are prioritising right now, not what worked in the past.

With 200,000+ applicants supported, Aussizz Group helps skilled migrants build 2026-ready regional strategies that adapt to state targeting, allocation pressure, and changing priorities.

FAQs

Q1. Are there fewer 491 places in 2026?

Yes. For the 2025–26 migration program year, the Skilled Work Regional (Subclass 491) allocation has been reduced to 7,500 places, down from 9,760 places in 2024–25. This reduction means higher competition and more selective state nomination criteria, rather than lower demand.

Q2. Which state has the highest 491 allocation?

Western Australia currently holds the largest 491 allocation, with 2,200 places. However, a higher allocation does not automatically mean easier nomination, as WA continues to prioritise specific occupations, sectors, and applicant profiles aligned with state workforce needs.

Q3. How long is the 491 visa valid for?

The Subclass 491 visa is valid for up to five years. During this period, visa holders must live, work, and study in designated regional areas and meet state and visa conditions to remain eligible for permanent residency pathways.

Q4. How many points does 491 nomination give?

State or regional nomination for the 491 visa provides 15 additional points toward the points test. This is a significant boost and often makes the difference for applicants who are otherwise uncompetitive for the Subclass 189 or 190.

Q5. Is 491 easier than 190 in 2026?

Sometimes, but not always. The 491 can be more accessible in the right state and occupation, particularly where regional shortages exist. However, in popular occupations or states, 491 competition can be just as strong as 190.

Q6. Can pathways close before 30 June 2026?

Yes. States can and do close pathways once their annual allocations are filled. For example, NSW has already closed certain nomination streams after reaching limits, showing that waiting too long can eliminate otherwise viable options.

Q7. Do states use the same criteria?

No. Each state and territory applies its own occupation lists, points thresholds, work experience rules, and priority settings. Meeting the Department of Home Affairs requirements alone is not enough; state-specific strategy is critical.

Q8. Does 491 still lead to PR?

Yes. The 491 remains a clear pathway to permanent residency, usually through the Subclass 191. Applicants must meet residence, work, and income evidence requirements during their regional stay to transition successfully.

Q9. Is there a minimum salary for 191 PR?

There is no fixed minimum salary threshold for the Subclass 191. However, applicants must provide ATO Notices of Assessment demonstrating taxable income over the required period, making consistent, lawful employment essential.

Q10. Do invitation rounds happen regularly?

Some states publish frequent updates or run regular invitation rounds, but frequency does not reduce selectivity. States continue to prioritise high-quality profiles aligned with immediate labour market needs, even when invitations occur often.