Australia Skilled Independent Visa (Subclass 189) Outlook for 2026: What to Expect After Major Changes in Migration Strategy

Subclass 189, the Skilled Independent Visa, has always been the gold standard of Australian migration – a direct pathway to Permanent Residency without employer sponsorship, state nomination or regional commitments.

As the country enters 2026 with a new migration strategy, revised labour forecasts and a more targeted skills-based system, the expectations for 189 invitations have funda mentally shifted.

This blog provides a true 2026 forecast based on:

• Australia’s new Skills in Demand policy direction
• Workforce modelling for critical sectors
• Points-test restructuring updates
• Federal migration settings
• Long-term labour shortage data
• The occupation patterns observed in recent rounds (used only for projection, not as a trend recap)

Aussizz Group – with 180,000+ successful migration journeys – offers this detailed breakdown to help skilled migrants prepare strategically for 2026 and beyond.

What Will Shape 189 Visa Invitations in 2026?

Australia’s migration system is moving into its most selective phase in more than a decade. The 189 visa will no longer be a broad intake visa. Instead, it will serve as a precision mechanism for addressing long-term national workforce shortages.

The key factors influencing 2026 invitations include:

1. Skills in Demand (SID) List

The SID list will shape all visa subclasses – especially 189. It focuses on:

• Healthcare
• Education
• Construction & Trades
• Engineering
• Energy & Infrastructure
• ICT Cyber & Security
• Social & Community Services

Applicants outside these clusters should not rely solely on 189.

2. New Points Test Structure

The points test in 2026 will begin rewarding:

• Sector relevance
• English proficiency
• Years of skilled work experience
• Study aligned with shortage occupations
• Employability score

Age will still matter, but experience and sector alignment will matter more.

3. Smaller Migration Program Caps

Australia is tightening PR intake to manage:

• Housing shortage
• Infrastructure strain
• Workforce planning
• Productivity priorities

Subclass 189 will remain small and selective, especially compared to 190 and 491.

4. Strong Priority for Onshore Skilled Applicants

The government continues to prefer applicants who:

• Are already integrated into the workforce
• Hold recent Australian work experience
• Reduce settlement burden
• Can fill shortages immediately

2026 Outlook: Who Is Most Likely to Receive 189 Invitations?

Based on modelling, policy direction and skill shortages, these occupations will dominate 189 invitations in 2026:

1. Registered Nurses (All Specialisations) – Highest Priority

Workforce modelling shows ongoing shortages in:

• Aged Care
• Emergency & Critical Care
• Mental Health
• Perioperative Nursing
• Community Nursing
• Surgical & Medical Wards

Nursing will remain the largest recipient of 189 invitations.

2. Early Childhood Teachers & Secondary School Teachers

The shortage of early childhood educators and STEM/special education teachers will persist.

Invitations for teachers will remain strong due to:

• Universal childcare reforms
• Regional shortages
• Ageing workforce in schools

3. Engineering Professionals

Australia’s massive infrastructure and energy-transition projects need more:

• Civil Engineers
• Structural Engineers
• Mechanical Engineers
• Electrical Engineers
• Petroleum & Chemical Engineers
• Environmental Engineers

189 invitations for engineers will remain stable or slightly increase.

4. Construction & Trade Occupations

One of the biggest bottlenecks in Australia is housing and infrastructure delivery. This drives strong demand for:

• Carpenters
• Welders (First Class)
• Painters
• Wall & Floor Tilers
• Metal Fabricators
• Construction Supervisors

These trades are expected to grow in invitation share for 2026.

5. Social Workers, Psychologists & Allied Health Roles

Growth in aged care and NDIS workforce demand ensures these occupations will remain strong candidates:

• Social Workers
• Physiotherapists
• Medical Laboratory Scientists
• Occupational Therapists
• Psychologists

6. ICT Security & Telecommunications

General IT occupations may struggle, but specialised roles will continue to receive attention:

• Cyber Security Specialist
• Telecommunications Network Engineer
• ICT Security Architect
• Systems Analyst (specialised fields)

Expected Points Threshold for 2026

Below is a forward-looking projection table for 2026 points competitiveness.

Table: Predicted 2026 Points Requirements for Subclass 189

Understand That 189 Is Now a Highly Selective Visa

Applicants must understand that Subclass 189 is not meant for general skilled migration anymore. It’s a targeted migration tool. The government will use it sparingly to fix shortages that affect national productivity, safety, education and infrastructure.

This awareness prevents unrealistic expectations and helps applicants build a realistic strategy.

Decide If 189, 190 or 491 Fits Your Profile

The smartest applicants compare their options instead of waiting for 189 indefinitely.

Here is a useful reference:

Table: Outlook Comparison for 189 vs 190 vs 491 (2026)

Most applicants outside nursing, trades, engineering, and teaching will need to rely on state nomination rather than 189.

Strengthen Your 2026 PR Competitiveness

To align with the new points test and national workforce priorities:

• Upgrade English to Superior
• Gain skilled Australian work experience
• Align your occupation with Skills in Demand sectors
• Refresh your skills assessment before expiration
• Improve partner points if applicable
• Build employer sponsorship pathways in parallel

Even one improvement (e.g., Superior English) can raise your invitation probability significantly.

Turn Your Profile Into a Real PR Pathway

Successful applicants in 2026 will:

• Lodge an EOI early
• Use 190/491 applications as active parallel plans
• Keep documentation continuously updated
• Leverage regional opportunities
• Consider employer sponsorship where feasible
• Avoid waiting years for a 189 invitation

With a structured strategy, even applicants not shortlisted for 189 can achieve PR through alternate routes.

High-Search FAQs Answered Through Insightful Headings

Q1. Will 189 Open Up for More Occupations in 2026?

No – it will continue narrowing to critical occupations. General occupations (HR, business, admin, accounting, marketing, general IT) should not rely on 189.

Q2. Will Offshore Applicants Receive Invitations in 2026?

Yes, but selectively.

Offshore invitations will mainly occur in:

• Nursing
• Teaching
• Engineering
• Construction trades
• Specialised STEM roles

General occupations offshore will have minimal chances.

Q3. Will Points Requirements Increase in 2026?

Points won’t necessarily rise – but competition will depend on occupation, not overall thresholds.

Shortage roles may still receive invitations at 75–80 points, but competitive sectors may require 90–95+ points.

Q4. Should I Wait for a 189 Invitation or Apply for 190/491?

For most applicants, waiting solely for 189 is no longer advisable. 190 and 491 remain much more stable and predictable pathways.

Final 2026 Outlook: Subclass 189 Will Reward Skilled, Sector-Aligned, Work-Ready Applicants

The 2026 Skilled Independent program will be small, selective and tightly focused on national shortages. Success will depend on:

• Occupation alignment
• English proficiency
• Skilled experience
• Onshore presence
• Demand in key sectors

Applicants in healthcare, education, engineering, trades and community services will have the strongest opportunities. Others should adopt multi-pathway strategies involving 190, 491 and employer sponsorship.

With 180,000+ visa successes, Aussizz Group continues to help skilled migrants understand their real prospects and build strong PR strategies tailored to Australia’s changing migration system.